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Icelandic Market Daily Newsletter

15.03.2019Our forecast: Unchanged policy rate on 20 March
13.03.2019CPI to rise 0.6% in March
04.03.2019Robust CA surplus and strong IIP in 2018
01.03.2019GDP growth robust in 2018 despite clouds on the horizon
27.02.2019Inflation subsides, in defiance of forecasts
26.02.2019Surplus on services trade in 2018 smaller than expected
21.02.2019MPC unanimous on unchanged policy rate
15.02.2019Households clutch their wallets tighter as 2019 begins
13.02.2019CPI to rise 0.6% in February
06.02.2019Unchanged policy rate, slightly softer tone
04.02.2019Macroeconomic forecast update: 2018-2020
29.01.2019Inflation measures 3.4% in January
09.01.2019We forecast a 0.2% CPI drop in January
07.01.2019A new twist: CA surplus during an economic boom
20.12.2018Inflation approaches upper tolerance limit at year-end
19.12.2018Slower growth in Icelanders’ payment card turnover
10.12.2018Domestic economy stronger than previously thought?
06.12.2018We forecast a 0.5% CPI rise in December
04.12.2018Sizeable current account surplus and improving net IIP in 2018
30.11.2018Record surplus on services trade in Q3
29.11.2018Inflation up half a percentage point
28.11.2018Consumers pessimistic as winter takes hold
22.11.2018MPC stiffens its tone
15.11.2018Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.3% in November
07.11.2018Policy rate hike driven by deteriorating inflation outlook
06.11.2018Expectations of higher interest rates in the near term but moderate inflation further ahead
02.11.2018We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 7 November
29.10.2018Inflation 2.8% in October
25.10.2018Macroeconomic forecast 2018-2020
23.10.2018Are residents weakening the ISK by stockpiling foreign currency?
16.10.2018CPI to rise 0.5% in October
13.09.2018CPI to rise 0.3% in September
07.09.2018Strong GDP growth in H1 2018
06.09.20188m/2018 goods account deficit ISK 111bn
31.08.2018Services account surplus shrinks in H1
30.08.2018Inflation remains very close to target
29.08.2018Policy rate unchanged but tone hardens
24.08.2018Labour market turns a corner
21.08.2018Households take their foot off the gas
17.08.2018Our forecast: Unchanged policy rate on 29 August
14.08.2018Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.4% in August
10.08.2018Labour market: tensions easing?
09.08.2018ISK still cruising in calm waters
02.08.2018Is tourism reaching equilibrium?
24.07.2018CPI up 0.04% in July
11.07.2018CPI to decline 0,2% in July
28.06.2018Consumer sentiment more moderate in Q2
27.06.2018Inflation outpaces expectations
22.06.2018Is private consumption growth slowing down?
13.06.2018Airfares and housing the main drivers of inflation in June
24.05.2018Updated macroeconomic forecast 2018-2020
16.05.2018Policy rate unchanged at 4.25%
15.05.2018Zeal for spending continues largely unabated
11.05.2018We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in May
08.05.2018Policy rate unchanged for the time being
03.05.2018Labour market approaching equilibrium?
27.04.2018Inflation back below Central Bank target
24.04.2018Real wage growth eases in Q1
18.04.2018Private consumption growth eases in Q1
17.04.2018FX Market: Change of pace and driving forces in 2017
12.04.2018CPI to rise 0.1% in April
10.04.2018Goods account deficit much smaller in 2018 to date
06.04.2018Monetary Policy Committee: Home-grown hawks; imported doves
03.04.2018Monetary Policy Committee: Continued consensus on unchanged policy rate
28.03.2018Days grow longer, consumers more upbeat
26.03.2018House prices push inflation above Central Bank target
22.03.2018Real wages still growing apace
16.03.2018Private consumption starts the year at a gallop
14.03.2018Unchanged policy rate and neutral tone from the MPC
07.03.2018Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 14 March
05.03.2018Current account surplus shrinks in 2017, but external position improves
02.03.2018Surplus on goods and services trade shrinks markedly in 2017
09.02.2018Our forecast: 0.6% rise in CPI in February
07.02.2018Year begins with unchanged policy rate
02.02.2018Year begins with unchanged policy rate
01.02.2018Prepare for landing: Updated macroeconomic forecast 2017-2019
29.01.2018Inflation a hair’s breadth below target
24.01.2018Real wage growth eases in 2017 after a record-breaking 2016
16.01.2018Private consumption still surging while tourism revenue growth eases
12.01.2018CPI to decline 0.6% in January
09.01.2018Deficit on goods trade grew 60% in 2017
29.12.2017Króna stabilises in H2/2017
21.12.2017Drop in house prices contains inflation in December
13.12.2017Unchanged policy rate and more hawkish tone
12.12.2017Unchanged policy rate for the holiday season
11.12.2017GDP growth more sluggish, based on weaker foundations
07.12.2017CPI to rise 0.5% in December
05.12.2017Current account surplus narrows ; IIP improves
01.12.2017Surplus on services trade unchanged despite rise in tourist numbers
28.11.2017Declining clothing prices and airfares dampen inflation in November
15.11.2017Policy rate unchanged amid cooing in the Dovecote
14.11.2017We forecast an unchanged CPI in November
08.11.2017Unchanged policy rate on 15 November?
27.10.2017Unexpected inflation spurt in October
24.10.2017Purchasing power spikes in September
13.10.2017CPI to rise 0.3% in October
02.10.2017Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 4 October
29.09.2017Preparing to land: Macroeconomic forecast 2017-2019
18.09.2017Minority partner ends Iceland‘s centre right govt. coalition
14.09.2017We project a 0.5% rise in the CPI in September
11.09.2017GDP growth below expectations in H1
05.09.2017H1 current account surplus shrinks markedly year-on-year in 2017
01.09.2017Services account surplus shrinks in Q2
30.08.2017Inflation eases in August
23.08.2017Policy rate unchanged at 4.5% - neutral forward guidance
18.08.2017Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 23 August
16.08.2017We forecast a 0.4% CPI rise in August
13.07.2017We forecast an unchanged CPI in July
29.06.2017Disinflation: courtesy of competition and the ISK
16.06.2017We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in June
17.05.2017Policy rate lowered, neutral forward guidance
16.05.2017How much will the recent ISK appreciation affect the MPC?
12.05.2017We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in May
10.05.2017Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 17 May
08.05.2017Marked tension in the labour market
27.04.2017Inflation above expectations in April
26.04.2017Real wage growth stalls in March
11.04.2017We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in April
05.04.2017Tourism booming worldwide
31.03.2017Housing inflation accelerates still further
29.03.2017Consumers buoyant in March
28.03.2017Inflation subsides again
24.03.2017Has exchange rate stability increased or decreased?
15.03.2017Policy rate unchanged – in line with our forecast
14.03.2017We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in March
13.03.2017FX market reacts strongly to removal of capital controls
10.03.2017Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 15 March
03.03.2017Current account balance at its all-time best
01.03.2017Record surplus on services trade in 2016
28.02.2017Surge in house prices
27.02.2017Inflation unchanged in February
23.02.2017Pension funds show weak real returns in 2016
10.02.2017Forecast a 0.7% rise in CPI in February
08.02.2017Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts
02.02.2017Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 8 February
27.01.2017Inflation holds steady at 1.9% in January
19.01.2017Sign of robust private consumption growth
13.01.2017CPI to decline 0.6% in January
22.12.2016ISK appreciation plays starring role in disinflation
14.12.2016Policy rate cut — in the face of most forecasts
09.12.2016CPI to rise 0.5% in December
07.12.2016Robust GDP growth in 9M/2016
28.11.2016Overseas travel sets new record …
25.11.2016Inflation rises despite ISK appreciation
23.11.2016Signs of strong residential investment growth in H2/2016
16.11.2016Policy rate unchanged, contrary to our forecast
15.11.2016We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in November
11.11.20160.25% interest rate cut expected on 16 November
09.11.2016FX reserves at a new high
08.11.2016An upswing in the housing market
27.10.2016ISK appreciation keeps inflation in check
14.10.2016CPI projected to rise 0.1% in October
05.10.2016Policy rate unchanged – in line with forecasts
30.09.2016Statistics Iceland error changes our policy rate forecast
28.09.2016Macroeconomic forecast - September 2016
16.09.2016We forecast an unchanged CPI in September
09.09.2016GDP growth robust but slightly below forecasts
07.09.2016We expect a 35% increase in tourist arrivals in 2017
26.08.2016Inflation falls once again
24.08.2016Policy rate cut in defiance of forecasts
17.08.2016Positive and timely step towards liberalisation
15.08.2016Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 24 August
12.08.2016Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.2% in August
27.07.2016Minor slump in consumer sentiment in July
22.07.2016Inflation drops sharply in July
12.07.2016We forecast an unchanged CPI in July
29.06.2016Upbeat sentiment continues
28.06.2016June inflation well below expectations
15.06.2016We expect the CPI to rise 0.5% in June
03.06.2016Economic outlook 2016-2018
01.06.2016Policy rate unchanged, as forecast
27.05.2016Inflation rises slightly in May
13.05.2016CPI projected to rise 0.3% in May
11.05.2016Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts
04.05.2016Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 11 May
28.04.2016Inflation below expectations in April
15.04.2016We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in April
30.03.2016Inflation tapers off in March
23.03.2016Optimism still carries the day
15.03.2016Strong growth in private consumption and services exports early in 2016
14.03.2016Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 16 March
11.03.2016CPI to rise 0.6% in March
29.02.2016Report about Icelandic tourism
25.02.2016CPI rise outpaces forecasts
18.02.2016Payment card turnover: strong growth early in the year …
12.02.2016CPI to rise 0.5% in February
10.02.2016Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts
29.01.2016Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 10 February
28.01.2016Inflation rises marginally in January
27.01.2016Icelanders upbeat in the new year
15.01.2016We forecast a 0.7% drop in the CPI in January
07.01.20162015: an astounding year for tourism
22.12.2015Inflation unchanged in December
15.12.2015Strongest card turnover growth since 2007
11.12.2015We forecast a 0.3% rise in the CPI in December
09.12.2015Policy rate unchanged – in line with forecasts
08.12.2015Robust GDP growth in 9M/2015
04.12.2015We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 9 December
01.12.2015Record services account surplus in Q3
26.11.2015Consumer prices decline in November
16.11.2015Indicators of strong growth in October
13.11.2015We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in November
10.11.2015Growth in tourist visits underforecast
04.11.2015Unexpected policy rate hike
29.10.2015Inflation slows marginally in October
28.10.2015We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 4 November
19.10.2015CPI projected to rise 0.1% in October
16.10.2015Macroeconomic forecast: Icelandic economy at a turning point
08.10.2015Tourist visits: yet another record
30.09.2015Policy rate unchanged, as forecast
25.09.2015CPI falls further than expected in September
24.09.2015Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 30 September
11.09.2015Strongest GDP growth since 2007
03.09.2015Enormous underlying current account surplus
27.08.2015Highest inflation in a year
19.08.2015Policy rate hike in line with forecasts
14.08.2015Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.5% in August
12.08.2015We forecast a 0.5-point policy rate hike on 19 August
07.08.2015Central Bank sets FX purchase record in July
23.07.2015Inflation rate rises
15.07.2015Ample growth in payment card figures
10.07.2015We expect the CPI to rise 0.1% in July
06.07.2015CBI makes record FX purchases in June
02.07.2015Strong returns in the equity market, while mutual fund redemptions exceed sales
01.07.2015First post-crash upgrade from Moody’s
29.06.2015One out of ten works in tourism
26.06.2015Inflation slows marginally in June
25.06.2015Monetary Policy Committee: one member wanted a 1-pt rate hike
15.06.2015Tepid card turnover growth in May
12.06.2015CPI projected to rise 0.3% in May
10.06.2015Interest rate hike in line with forecasts
09.06.2015Modest GDP growth in Q1
04.06.2015We forecast a policy rate increase on 10 June
03.06.2015Q1/2015: Surplus on external trade and improved IIP
01.06.2015Record services account surplus
28.05.2015Inflation remains below target
27.05.2015CCI virtually unchanged in May
18.05.2015Modest card turnover growth
15.05.2015Deteriorating inflation outlook
13.05.2015Monetary Policy Committee signals rate hike in June
08.05.2015Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 13 May
29.04.2015Inflation remains low in April
28.04.2015Nosedive in consumer confidence
27.04.2015Larger, more stable equity market
17.04.2015Continued sharp rise in house prices
15.04.2015Card turnover figures show strong growth
10.04.2015We forecast a 0.1% rise in the CPI in April
09.04.2015Strong goods trade surplus in Q1
31.03.2015Upbeat sentiment gains ground in March
27.03.2015Pace of inflation doubles in March
18.03.2015Policy rate unchanged, as forecasted
17.03.2015Stiff competition for flights to Iceland
16.03.2015Card turnover figures indicate growth in private consumption and FX revenues
13.03.2015OUR FORECAST: CPI to rise 0.9% in March
12.03.2015Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 18 March
10.03.20152014 GDP growth in line with expectations
04.03.2015Tourism leads the recovery
02.03.2015Record services exports in 2014
26.02.2015Inflation still below CBI tolerance limits
25.02.2015Sunny skies over the labour market
24.02.2015Marked improvement in consumer sentiment
19.02.2015MPC unanimous
18.02.2015Annual accounts and dividend payments 2014
16.02.2015Continued record FX inflows from tourism
13.02.2015CPI to rise 0.8% in February
11.02.2015Bright prospects for external trade in 2015
04.02.2015Policy rate unchanged – against all expectations
30.01.20150.25% interest rate cut expected on 4 February
29.01.2015Headline inflation unchanged at 0.8% in January
26.01.20152014: wins and losses in the equity market
23.01.2015Households: marked improvement in 2014
21.01.2015K-90 to rise 13% in 2015
16.01.2015We forecast a 0.9% drop in the CPI in January
14.01.2015Robust card turnover growth in 2014
23.12.2014Consumers show burst of holiday spirit
19.12.2014Inflation below tolerance limits for the first time
15.12.2014Private consumption growth set for year-end surge
11.12.2014We forecast a 0.3% rise in the CPI in December
10.12.2014Policy rate lowered by 0.5 percentage points
05.12.2014GDP growth weaker than expected
04.12.2014Tourism a major contributor to FX inflows
03.12.2014We forecast a 25-point rate cut on 10 December
02.12.2014Surplus on services trade breaks all-time record
27.11.2014Pension funds step up listed equity holdings
26.11.2014Inflation at a 16-year low
25.11.2014Consumer sentiment improves modestly following debt relief measures
24.11.2014Real wage hike – courtesy of reduced goods prices
21.11.2014Oil prices fall to 4-yr low; further cuts possible in Iceland
20.11.2014MPC: one voted against; another would have preferred to wait
17.11.2014Steep growth in payment card turnover in October
14.11.2014We forecast a 0.1% fall in the CPI in November
13.11.2014Negative total returns year-to-date in the Icelandic equity market
06.11.2014Continued surge in foreign tourist visits
05.11.2014Finally – a policy rate cut
30.10.2014We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 5 November
29.10.2014Inflation rises marginally in October
28.10.2014Consumer sentiment plunges
24.10.2014How reliable is the analysis of Iceland’s balance of payments problem?
23.10.2014Limited correlation between OMXI8 and European share price indices
22.10.2014Real wages rise strongly
17.10.2014We forecast an unchanged CPI in October
16.10.2014MPC: grounds for possible policy rate cut
14.10.2014Foreign tourists’ card turnover year-to-date outpaces 2013
08.10.2014Macroeconomic forecast: Robust growth ahead
03.10.2014Bleak year for equity holders
01.10.2014Policy rate unchanged – in line with forecasts
30.09.2014Continued inflows into mutual funds; households’ holdings decline
25.09.2014CPI declines unexpectedly in September
19.09.20142014 output growth could turn out weaker than forecast
18.09.2014Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 1 October
15.09.2014Outlook for strong private consumption growth
12.09.2014CPI to rise 0.2% in September
04.09.2014MPC unanimous
03.09.2014ISK appreciates strongly in FX auctions year-to-date
27.08.2014Modest rise in CPI in August
21.08.2014Tourist numbers to keep rising this winter
20.08.2014MPC softens its tone
15.08.2014Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.3% in August
14.08.2014Unchanged policy rate on 20 August
07.08.2014No FX inflows from goods trade
30.07.2014Consumer sentiment clouds up during rainy summer season
23.07.2014Inflation still at target
16.07.2014Foreign tourists’ card turnover up by a fourth
14.07.2014We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in July
04.07.2014Services trade plays key role in FX generation
02.07.2014Goods and services prices 12% higher in Iceland than in the EU
01.07.2014Equity markets in the doldrums
27.06.2014Inflation still below target
26.06.2014MPC satisfied with current real exchange rate for the near term
24.06.2014Consumer optimism hits post-crisis high
20.06.2014Capital area house prices dip in May
18.06.2014Spending fever in May
16.06.2014CPI expected to rise 0.2% in June
11.06.2014Unchanged interest rates in line with forecasts
10.06.2014Tourist numbers to rise sharply despite strikes
06.06.2014Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 11 June
04.06.2014ISK strengthens despite CA deficit
02.06.2014Services balance finally positive in Q1
28.05.2014Inflation driven by house price increases
22.05.2014Pension funds’ foreign asset ratio near historical average
21.05.2014Next policy rate change will be an increase
19.05.2014CPI expected to rise 0.2% in May
14.05.2014A swift change in the weather
12.05.2014We forecast a rate cut on 21 May
08.05.2014Services exports a key player in FX accumulation
07.05.2014Share prices down 5% year-to-date
05.05.2014Inflows to mutual funds continue in spite of falling share prices
02.05.2014Macroeconomic forecast for 2014 -2016
30.04.2014Consumer sentiment deteriorates
29.04.2014Inflation still below target
25.04.2014Marked rise in capital area house prices
15.04.2014Signs of rapid private consumption growth in Q1
14.04.2014We forecast a 0.5% rise in the CPI in April
09.04.2014Real exchange rate at post-crisis high
03.04.2014Increased likelihood of a policy rate cut in May
01.04.20142014 Treasury bond issuance concentrated in H1
28.03.2014K-90 down 5.5% year-to-date
26.03.2014Inflation still below target
25.03.2014Consumer Confidence improves
20.03.2014Three new listings expected this year, not six
19.03.2014MPC eyes possible rate cut
17.03.2014CPI to rise 0.3% in March
14.03.2014Surge in private consumption in Q1
13.03.2014Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 19 March
07.03.2014GDP growth of the best kind
06.03.2014Goods trade: weakest beginning since 2009
04.03.2014Current account balance at its all-time best...
03.03.2014Equity market blows hot and cold
28.02.2014Balance on services: rapidly shrinking deficit
27.02.2014Inflation below target
25.02.2014Consumer sentiment improves between months …
21.02.2014K-90 down 2% year-to-date
18.02.2014Iceland’s high real policy rate
14.02.2014Inflation to go below inflation target in February
12.02.2014MPC takes a harder line than expected
11.02.2014Pension funds see strong real returns in 2013
07.02.2014CBI a big player in the FX market
05.02.2014Brisk activity at FX auction
03.02.2014Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 12 February
30.01.2014Inflation falls off sharply in January
29.01.2014The beta coefficient – volatility quantified
21.01.2014Rise in house prices a boon for households
17.01.2014We forecast a 0.4% drop in the CPI in January
14.01.2014Christmas cheer shows in card turnover
09.01.2014Tourism: an incredible year
08.01.2014Central Bank upbeat on near-term inflation
07.01.20142014 starts with a strong ISK
20.12.2013Housing component weighs heavily in December CPI increase
16.12.2013Private consumption driven by surge in online shopping?
12.12.2013We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in December
11.12.2013Unchanged interest rates in line with forecasts
10.12.2013Tourism: the adventure continues
06.12.2013We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 11 December
04.12.2013FX Auction: keen interest in 50/50 investment channel
03.12.2013Government debt relief proposals positive for households
29.11.2013Balance on services: record surplus
27.11.2013November rise in CPI driven by housing component
22.11.2013General trend towards optimism in output growth forecasts
20.11.2013ISK exchange rate stable
14.11.2013Private consumption growth still in the doldrums
08.11.2013Pension funds and the equity market
06.11.2013Longest stretch of policy rate stability since 2004
01.11.2013Change in frequency of publication of Icelandic Market Daily
31.10.2013Less of a trade surplus so far this year
30.10.2013We forecast no change in interest rate on 6 November
29.10.2013Consumer sentiment down again in October
28.10.2013Double MCI auction
25.10.2013Autumn inflation below expectations
24.10.2013Marel returns a disappointing results
23.10.2013Positive labour market statistics from SI
22.10.2013Real wage growth resumes
21.10.2013Strong rise in condominium prices
18.10.2013Executives expect high inflation
17.10.2013MPC unanimous on unchanged policy rate
16.10.2013Wide spread in FX auction
15.10.2013Macroeconomic forecast
14.10.2013Surprise turnaround in Treasury bill auction
11.10.2013Turnaround in euro area house prices?
10.10.2013Non-residents’ Treasury bill holdings radically dwindle
09.10.2013Icelanders eager to travel abroad after poor summer
08.10.2013Contraction in pension funds’ percentage of foreign securities
07.10.2013Reginn buys more properties
04.10.2013Ample trade surplus in September
03.10.2013Small increases in Icelandic equity market
02.10.2013Outlook for lowest Treasury bond issuance next year since the crash
01.10.2013Good turnover in equity market in September
30.09.2013Trade surplus down by one quarter so far this year
27.09.2013We forecast an unchanged interest rate on 2 October
26.09.2013Lower inflation than expected in September
25.09.2013Substantial improvement of the labour market
24.09.2013Less consumer confidence in Q3
23.09.2013Treasury bond issuance target almost reached
20.09.2013Real wage growth loses pace
19.09.2013Reduced municipality-generated pressure on the ISK?
18.09.2013Capital area house prices drop month-on-month
17.09.2013Radical change in impact of ISK depreciation on the economy
16.09.2013Private consumption growth concentrated offshore?
13.09.2013We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in September
12.09.2013Ample growth in housing market turnover
11.09.2013Pension funds own at least 32% of issued share capital
10.09.2013Króna has depreciated since beginning of September
09.09.2013Tourism figures still rocketing
06.09.2013GDP growth stronger than expected in H1
05.09.2013MPC unanimous on unchanged policy rate
04.09.2013Second-smallest FX auction to date
03.09.2013Small underlying current account surplus
02.09.2013Eimskip earnings down in Q2